Performance Levers & Tactical Drivers
Adjust the 12 core analytical factors driving NBA wins and losses to simulate performance shifts
Points scored per 100 possessions above or below team baseline rating.
Points allowed per 100 possessions. Negative is better defense, positive is worse.
Game tempo in possessions per 48 min. Higher pace amplifies talent discrepancies.
Shift in 3-point conversion percentage. The highest single game-to-game variance driver.
Turnover rate per 100 possessions. Negative = elite ball security, Positive = giveaways.
Offensive and defensive glass control delta. Governs extra possessions and stops.
Drawing fouls, getting to the line, and converting free-throw opportunities.
Overall roster health factor. <100% simulates key injuries; >100% simulates peak form.
Multiplier on baseline home court edge (+3.2 pts). 1.5x+ simulates a hostile arena.
Win probability shift in close games decided by 5 points or fewer.
Fast-break conversion and open-court scoring efficiency delta per 100 possessions.
Net scoring differential per 100 possessions when non-starters and reserves are on the floor.
Projected Standings, Seeding & Playoff Odds
Monte Carlo probability distributions across division, conference, and full league standings
Remaining Schedule & Game-by-Game Forecast
Simulated win probability for each remaining matchup with opponent net rating and venue advantages
| Game | Date | Matchup | Venue | Opponent Record | Opp Net RTG | Baseline Win% | Adjusted Win% | Forecast |
|---|
Saved Simulation Runs & Historical Comparison
Snapshot runs from different checkpoints and lever configurations to compare trajectories over time